More gas will continue to be delivered to homes and companies if EU member states cooperate and allow the market forces to work as long as possible, a Gas Stress test report presented by the European Commission showed. Serbia, along with Finland, Estonia, Bosnia and Macedonia to be the most affected in case of a prolonged supply disruption.
The Commission’s report on the resilience of the European gas system in case of interruption of Russian gas supplies this winter said the government intervention should be carefully prepared on a regional basis and only kick in, if needed.
The report includes concrete short-term recommendations for the most vulnerable EU Member States and neighbouring countries.
“This report shows that we are not waiting but do everything we can do to be prepared. For the very first time, we have a complete picture of the risks and possible solutions. If we work together, show solidarity and implement the recommendations of this report, no household in the EU has to be left out in the cold this winter,” Günther H. Oettinger, the Commission’s Vice-President responsible for Energy, said.
The Russian-Ukrainian gas dispute puts the gas supplies to the EU once more at risk, as in 2009. With the winter approaching, the Commission wanted to have a clear picture of where the biggest shortfalls would arise and how they could be mitigated.
The report presented the results of a modelling exercise conducted by 38 European countries, including EU Member States and neighbouring countries.
It analyses different scenarios, in particular a complete halt of Russian gas imports into the EU for a period of six months.
A prolonged supply disruption would have a substantial impact in the EU, with the Eastern member states and the energy community countries being affected most.
It is estimated that Finland, Estonia, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM), Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Serbia would miss at least 60 per cent of the gas they need.
“If countries work together, instead of adopting purely national measures, then less consumers will be cut off from the gas,” the report said.
A market-based approach should be the guiding principle, with non-market measures only kicking in when the market fails, the report said, naming concrete recommendations on short-term measures for the most vulnerable EU Member States and the neighbouring countries.
The Stress Test Report is the first concrete action regarding short term energy security measures, which follows the adoption by the European Commission of the European Energy Security Strategy in May.
The concrete recommendations will accompany the measures foreseen by the Strategy to improve the EU’s security of supply: completing the internal energy market, increasing energy efficiency, diversifying external supply sources and exploiting indigenous sources (fossil and non-fossil).
EU imports 53% of the energy it consumes. Energy dependence relates to crude oil (almost 90%), to natural gas (66%), and to a lesser extent to solid fuels (42%) as well as nuclear fuel (40%). Around half of the EU’s primary energy consumption (48%) is used for space and water heating.
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